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I. |
Introduction |
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How old is old?
The Madrid
International Plan of Action on Ageing
Development in an
ageing world
Moving forward |
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II. |
An ageing world population |
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Changing population age
distributions
Underlying causes of changing age distributions
Historical stages of changing age distribution
Regional differences in population ageing
Ageing
within the older population itself
Is population ageing
inevitable?
Historical reductions in fertility and mortality
Future
trends according to alternative projection scenarios
Potential impact of fertility policies
Potential impact of migration
Trends in working and
dependent age groups
Dependency ratios: definition and interpretation
Global
trends in age-related dependency
Regional differences in age-related dependency
Ageing
within the working-age population
Gender differences at
older ages
Numbers of men and women
Gender
gap in life expectancy at birth and at older ages
Conclusions |
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III. |
Older persons in a
changing society |
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Introduction
Changing living
arrangements and housing needs
Living
arrangements and housing needs
Implications for care and intergenerational support
Social, cultural and
family contributions of older persons
Grand
parenting: contribution to intergenerational cohesion in the
family
Participation of older
persons in society
Political participation
Empowering older
members of society
Fighting neglect, abuse and violence directed against older
persons
Risk
factors for elder abuse and response mechanisms
Advancing the human rights of older persons
Improving images of older persons
Conclusions |
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IV. |
Economic
consequences of population ageing |
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Introduction
Ageing, labour supply
and productivity growth
Asymmetries in labour supply growth
Off
setting the slower labour-force growth
Ageing
labour force, declining productivity?
Ageing and consumption
patterns
Life-cycle patterns of income and consumption
Do
consumption patterns change with age?
Ageing and savings
dynamics
Ageing and the
structure and stability of financial markets
Institutional investors: transforming financial markets
Conclusions
Appendix: Grouping of
countries and areas by fertility, immigration
and labour-force participation rates |
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V. |
Old-age income
security |
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Introduction
Old age and income
poverty
Sources of economic
support and livelihood for older persons
Formal pension systems:
ensuring income security during old age
Sustaining and expanding pension systems
Reforming pension systems I: fine-tuning system design
Reforming pension systems II: introducing notional accounts
Reforming pension systems III: switching to fully funded systems
Solidarity, accessibility and affordability: moving towards
universal coverage
Conclusions |
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VI. |
Health and long-term
care systems for ageing societies |
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Introduction
Epidemiological
transition and population ageing
Mortality decline and the epidemiological transition
Health and disability
in the older population
Health differentials
and their implications for future trends
Are health-care systems
prepared for population ageing?
Health
resources and expenditures
Ageing and the need for
reform of health-care systems
The challenge for
health policies
The provision of
long-term care
Implications for future
health costs
Projections of the
impact of ageing on health expenditures
The epidemiological
approach applied to Australia
Projections of the
impact of ageing on future expenditures on long-term care
Conclusions |
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Statistical annex
Bibliography |
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Boxes |
| IV. 1. |
The demographic transition: first and second dividends for the
third age? |
| IV. 2. |
Pension funds: international capital flows and the home bias |
| V. 1. |
Pension systems: a multitude of arrangements |
| V. 2. |
A brief history of old-age income security |
| V. 3. |
Expanding social security in India |
| V. 4. |
Moving from pay-as-you-go to fully funded schemes: a long and
costly transition |
| VI. 1. |
The “ageing in place” movement: the growing importance of
home-based health care |
| VI. 2. |
Projecting health-care expenditures into the future |
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Figures |
| II. 1. |
Population pyramids for the world and groups of countries, 1950,
2005 and 2050 |
| II. 2. |
Time period required for the proportion of the population aged 65
years or over to increase from 7 to 14 per cent and from 14 to 21 per cent,
selected countries |
| II. 3. |
Size and distribution of world population aged 60 years or
over by groups of countries, 1950, 1975, 2005, 2025 and 2050 |
| II. 4. |
Trends in three types of dependency ratio for the world and groups
of countries, 1950-2050 |
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II. 5. |
Distribution of the working-age population by age group
for the world and groups of countries, 1950-2050 |
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III. 1. |
Changes in divorce rates, selected countries, 1960, 1980 and 2003 |
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III. 2. |
Living arrangements of older persons in developed and developing
regions |
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III. 3. |
Proportion of older persons living alone at two time points, by
sex, averages for major areas |
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III. 4. |
Living arrangements of older persons in Africa, Asia and Latin
America and the Caribbean |
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IV. 1. |
Labour-force growth, 1998-2000 and 2000-2020 |
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IV. 2. |
World male and female labour-force participation rates by age
group, 2005 |
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IV. 3. |
Relationship between labour-force participation rates of
older workers aged 65 years or over, 2005, and GDP per capita |
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IV. 4. |
Increased participation of older workers in the labour force: impact on the
average annual rate of growth of GDP per capita, 2000-2050,
selected countries |
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IV. 5. |
Impact of population ageing on required annual average rate of
labour-productivity growth, 2000-2050, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States of
America |
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IV. 6. |
The economic life-cycle
profile for the developing world |
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IV. 7. |
Structure of
consumption expenditure by age group, United States of America,
2006, and European Union, 1999 |
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IV. 8. |
Structure of household
consumption, selected countries, 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990 and
1995 |
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IV. 9. |
Global saving and
investment per capita by major groups of countries and areas,
1985, 1990, 1995 and 2002 |
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IV. 10. |
Gross household savings
as a share of gross national savings, Japan and the United States,
1960-2005 |
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V. 1A. |
National and old-age
poverty headcount ratios, selected developed economies, circa 2000 |
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V. 1B. |
National and old-age
poverty headcount ratios, selected developing economies, 1997-2005 |
| V. 2. |
Contributors to public
pension schemes as a proportion of labour force, by income per
capita |
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V. 3. |
Simulated costs for
developing countries of a universal social pension scheme designed
to keep older persons out of extreme poverty, 2005 and 2050 |
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VI. 1. |
Distribution of deaths
by major cause group, WHO regions, 2005 |
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VI. 2. |
Total and healthy life
expectancy at birth and at age 60, by region and sex, 2002 |
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VI. 3A. |
Share of older persons
in total population versus share of health expenditure in GDP,
selected OECD countries, 2003 |
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VI. 3B. |
Average annual growth
rate of older population versus average annual growth rate of per
capita health expenditure, selected developed countries, 1970-2002 |
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VI. 3C. |
Change in share in
total population of older population versus average annual growth
rate of per capita health expenditure, selected developed
countries, 1970-2002 |
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VI. 4. |
Trends in norms and
expectations with respect to care for the elderly among married
females under age 50, Japan, 1950-2004 |
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VI. 5. |
Range in impacts, under
three dif erent scenarios, of key cost drivers on national
health-care expenditure in Sri Lanka in 2025 and 2101 |
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VI. 6. |
Australia:
decomposition of projected change in health expenditure for all
projected disease patterns between the base year of 2002-2003 and
2012-2013, 2022-2023 and 2032-2033 |
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Tables |
| II. 1. |
Life expectancy at
birth and total fertility rate for selected countries and groups
of countries, 1950-1955, 2000-2005 and 2045-2050 |
| II. 2. |
Population by broad age
group for the world and groups of countries, 1950, 1975, 2005,
2025 and 2050 |
| II. 3. |
Population aged 80
years or over for selected countries and groups of countries,
1950, 2005 and 2050 |
| II. 4. |
Age distribution
estimated for 2005 and according to different projection variants
for 2050, for the world and groups of countries |
| II. 5. |
Age structure of the
population projected for the developed |
| II. 6. |
Net number of migrants
required during 1995-2050 to achieve countries in 2050 according
to the medium and zero migration variants different population
scenarios, selected countries and regions |
| II. 7. |
Sex ratio of the
population in selected age groups for the world and groups of
countries, 1950, 2005 and 2050 |
| II. 8. |
Life expectancy at birth and at ages
60, 65 and 80, by sex for the world and groups of countries,
1950-2050 |
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III. 1. |
Conditions of housing in Latin America
by age group |
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III. 2. |
Access to provision of basic housing
services in Latin America by age group |
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IV. 1. |
Changes in the labour force, 1980-2000
and 2000-2020, by region and sex |
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IV. 2. |
Labour-force participation rates,
2005, by region, sex and age group |
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IV. 3. |
Household saving rate and old-age
dependency ratio in selected OECD countries, 1989, 1995, 2000,
2003 and 2007 |
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IV. 4. |
Assets under management by
institutional investors, developed economies, 1990-2004 |
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V. 1. |
Proportion receiving pensions and
poverty headcount ratio for persons aged 60 years or over,
nationally and by urban/rural, selected Latin American countries,
2001-2005 |
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V. 2. |
Incidence of poverty among persons
aged 65 years or over and among persons aged 65 years or over
living alone, by sex, selected developed countries, 1996 |
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V. 3. |
Main sources of income during old age
as a proportion of total income, selected countries, and Taiwan
Province of China, selected years |
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VI. 1. |
Number of physicians and hospital
beds, by region, 1997-2004 |
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VI. 2. |
Total health expenditure, by region,
2000-2003 |
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VI. 3. |
Share of public spending in total
health expenditures, by region, 2000-2003 |
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VI. 4. |
Distribution of total health-care
expenditure, by age group, selected countries |
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