|
I. |
Growth and
development trends, 1960-2005 |
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|
Patterns of economic
growth divergence
The
big divide: developing versus developed countries
Growth
successes and collapses have been concentrated in time
Geographical concentration of growth successes and collapses
Growth divergence and
human development
Perpetuation of
inequality and its implications for world development |
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|
II. |
Structural change
and economic growth |
|
|
Economic growth
requires structural change
Patterns of growth and
structural change, 1970-2003
Investment patterns and
structural change
Employment,
productivity and structural change
Conclusions
Appendix: Technical
note on the decomposition of labour productivity
growth and of the
employment-to-population ratio |
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|
|
III. |
Has trade
integration caused greater divergence? |
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|
The contribution of
international trade to growth divergence
Global
markets dynamics and changes in the structure of merchandise
exports
Merchandise trade, specialization patterns and growth
Specialization patterns in service exports and growth
Foreign direct
investment and the convergence-divergence dilemma
Trends
in FDI flows and stocks
FDI in
manufacturing: international production networks and growth
Can
FDI lead to faster growth in developing countries?
Production sector
development policies, diversification and export growth
Creating dynamic comparative advantages: policies and outcomes
Outward orientation, trade liberalization and growth
Is
there space for production sector development policies today?
The road towards
greater convergence
Appendix: On data and
methodology |
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|
IV. |
Macroeconomic
policies and growth divergence |
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|
Macroeconomic stability
and growth divergence
Inflation and growth
Macroeconomic imbalances and growth
Financial development, growth and macroeconomic stability
External constraints on
stability and growth in developing countries
The cyclicality of
macroeconomic policies in developing countries
Public investment in
infrastructure and human development
Physical infrastructure and growth
Gaps
in human capital investment
Official development assistance, growth and development
Summary and policy
implications
The
importance of macroeconomic stability and policy flexibility for
growth
Macroeconomic policies and national development strategies
International policies to reduce financial volatility
Investing in infrastructure and human capital
Increasing aid and its effectiveness |
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|
V. |
Governance,
institutions and growth divergence |
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|
Institutions,
governance and economic growth
Changes in governance
structure and growth
New
comparative economics
Critiques of governance measures and cross-country analysis
Varieties of governance structures
Countries with
successful governance transformations
Land
reforms
Trade-policy reforms
The
gradualist approach: China
Sources of growth
failures
Growth
failures in the past 50 years: overview
Institutional aspects of the failure to grow
Governance, civil strife and conflict management
Conclusion |
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Annex
Statistical tables
Bibliography |
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|
Boxes |
| I.1 |
Definitions of some key concepts |
| I.2 |
Does it matter which country is the engine of world economic
growth? |
| II.1 |
Investment growth and collapse in the economies in transition |
| II.2 |
Productivity growth and structural change in Asia |
| III.1 |
Can markets for primary commodities and natural resource-based
manufactures be dynamic? |
| III.2 |
International labour migration and economic growth |
| III.3 |
Exports of computer and information services: flying geese in
South Asia? |
| IV.1 |
Challenges for exchange-rate policy |
| IV.2 |
Flexible macroeconomic policies underlying Botswana’s exceptional
performance |
| IV.3 |
Aid effectiveness and economic growth: the type of aid matters |
| V.1 |
The first great divergence and the importance of the Atlantic
trade |
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|
|
Figures |
| I.1 |
World income
inequality, 1960, 1980 and 2001 |
| I.2 |
Per capita GDP growth,
developing countries and OECD member countries, 1950-2001 |
| I.3 |
Episodes of sustained
expansion or contraction in GDP per capita, by number of countries
per region or country group, 1951-2000 |
| I.4 |
Growth in GDP per
capita of 106 developing countries, 1951-2003 |
|
I.5 |
Terms of trade for
non-fuel commodities and for developing-country manufactures,
1900-2005 |
|
I.6 |
Geographical
distribution of GDP per capita, 164 countries, 1960, 1980 and 2000 |
|
I.7 |
The relation between
level of income and life expectancy, 2002 |
|
I.8 |
The relation between
income convergence and the decrease in the infant mortality rate,
1960-2003 |
|
I.9 |
Growth rates of output
of the global economy, China, the United States of America and the
group of developing countries (excluding China), 1963-2001 |
|
I.10 |
Diversification of
merchandise exports by region, 1980, 1990 and 2004 |
|
I.11 |
Share of regional
inflows of FDI in world total FDI, 1970 and 2003 |
|
II.1 |
Economic growth and
structural changes in the industrial sector, the public utilities
and services sector, and agriculture, selected regions and country
groups, 1970-2003 |
|
II.2 |
Annual growth rates of
output per capita in agriculture, mining and manufacturing, and
the public utilities and services sectors, selected regions and
country groups, 1970-2003 |
|
II.3 |
Average investment rate
for selected periods and regions, 1960-2003 |
|
II.4 |
Volatility in growth
rate of investment per capita and growth rate of GDP per capita:
the impact of investment volatility on economic performance,
1970-2004 |
|
II.5 |
Annual growth rate in
investment per capita versus change in the shares of agriculture
and industry in total output, selected regions and country groups,
1970-2003 |
|
II.6 |
Sector investment as a
percentage share of gross fixed capital formation, Republic of
Korea, 1970 and 2003 |
|
II.7 |
Contribution of the
agriculture, industry and service sectors to job creation,
selected regions and country groups, from 1991 to 2003-2004 |
|
II.8 |
Annual growth rate in
labour productivity for selected country groups and regions, from
1991 to 2003-2004 |
|
II.9 |
Contribution of the
industrial sector, the public utilities, construction and services
sectors, and the agricultural sector to economy-wide labour
productivity growth, selected regions and country groups, from
1991 to 2003-2004 |
|
II.10 |
Annual rate of growth
of labour productivity, and annual percentage change in the
employment-to-population ratio, selected regions and country
groups, from 1991 to 2003-2004 |
| III.1 |
Value of exports of
developing countries as a percentage of the value of exports of
developed countries, by category of goods, 1962-2000 |
|
III.2 |
Share of selected
categories of non-oil exports of developing countries in total
regional exports, by developing-country region or country group,
1962-2000 |
|
III.3 |
Per capita GDP growth
relative to dominant pattern of trade specialization, 105
developing countries, 1962-2000 |
|
III.4 |
World exports of
services by sectors, 1980-2003 |
|
III.5 |
Inward FDI inflows,
developed and developing countries, 1980-2004 |
|
IV.1 |
Median inflation,
selected regions, 1961-2003 |
|
IV.2 |
Inflation and growth
performance by regions and periods, 1961-2003 |
|
IV.3 |
Macroeconomic balances:
first-tier newly industrialized economies in Asia, 1979-2002;
South-East Asia, 1979-2002; semi-industrialized countries,
1976-2002; and sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2002 |
|
IV.4 |
Financial market
capitalization and savings rate, selected countries and regions,
2003 |
|
IV.5 |
Domestic bond market
growth in developing economies (amount outstanding), 1989-2005 |
|
IV.6 |
Cyclicality of fiscal
policy and economic growth in developing countries, 1960-2003 |
|
IV.7 |
Latin America: primary
deficit and public investment in infrastructure, 1980-2001 |
|
IV.8 |
Years of schooling,
2000, and changes in education attainment between 1960 and 2000,
Latin America and East Asia |
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|
Tables |
| I.1 |
The big divergence:
developing versus developed countries, 1820-2001 |
| I.2 |
Theil decomposition of
international inequality, 1960-2001 |
| I.3 |
Theil decomposition of
developing-world inequality, 1960-2001 |
| II.1 |
Levels of per capita
investment, selected regions and country groups, 1960-2003 |
| III.1 |
Share of products by
category in world merchandise trade, 1965-1970, 1980-1985 and
1995-2000 |
| III.2 |
Level of growth of GDP
per capita of developing countries by dominant export
specialization pattern, 1962-2000 |
| IV.1 |
Output and inflation
volatility by regions, 1960-2003 |
| IV.2 |
Cyclicality of fiscal
policy and economic growth, selected countries and regions,
1960-2003 |
| IV.3 |
Telephone mainlines
availability and road and railroad density: ratio of the values of
two key infrastructure indicators in developing regions to values
in developed countries, 1960-1995 |
| V.1 |
Countries with at least
seven consecutive years of decline in real per capita income,
1950-2001 |
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