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World Economic Situtation and Prospects 2007   

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007

UNITED NATIONS 

This work is published for and on behalf of the United Nations.

Paper  Back Book   :   Pages : 176
2007  Edition         :   ISBN 978-81-7188-636-4
Price : Rs. 595.00  
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ABOUT THE BOOK :

After a solid and broad-based growth for three consecutive years, the world economy is expected to decelerate in 2007, mainly dragged by a slowdown of the United States. Growth in Europe and Japan, meanwhile, will not be sufficient for these economies to act as locomotives of global growth. The outlook remains mostly positive for developing countries, but a degree of moderation is also expected. Sustained high growth in China, India and a few other major emerging economies seems to have engendered synergy among developing countries so that growth in this group is more endogenous. However, a large number of developing countries remain highly vulnerable to the vicissitudes of commodity prices and the volatility of international financial markets. The report highlights the need for greater employment growth, which has not kept pace with output growth. The global economic outlook also encompasses a number of important downside risks: bursts in the housing bubbles in a number of countries, uncertainties in oil prices and mounting global imbalances. The report calls for international macroeconomic policy coordination in order to facilitate an orderly adjustment of global imbalances.


CONTENTS IN DETAIL :

Executive Summary

Contents

Explanatory notes

I.

Global outlook

Macroeconomic prospects for the world economy

Expected deceleration of world economic growth in 2007

A more volatile international economic environment for developing countries

The need for more employment growth 

Benign inflation outlook 

Uncertainties and downside risks for the global outlook 

Burst of the housing bubble 

The impact of higher oil prices

Widening global imbalances 

The need for macroeconomic policy coordination 

A new Plaza Agreement? 

The case for policy coordination 

Obstacles to policy coordination 

What can be done?

 

II.

International trade

Trade flows: can the momentum be sustained? 

Primary commodity prices and markets

Non-oil commodities

World oil markets

Trade policy developments and trends

Doha negotiations: dealing with a complete deadlock

Aid for Trade: tentative progress in moving the Initiative forward

 

III.

Financial flows to developing and transition economies

Net transfers

Private capital flows

Net private capital flows to developing countries

Continuing expansion of foreign direct investment

International financial cooperation

Official development assistance

The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and other debt-relief measures

Governance of the global financial system

Quota and voice reform in the International Monetary Fund

Multilateral surveillance

Financing for crisis prevention

International Monetary Fund engagement with low-income countries

Regional financial cooperation

 

IV.

Regional developments and outlook

Developed market economies

North America: the United States sees a significant downshift

Developed Asia and the Pacific: the economic recovery in Japan continues, but a slowdown is expected for 2007

Western Europe: the recovery continues

The new EU members: reaching record growth rates

Economies in transition: buoyant growth continues 

South-eastern Europe: strong expansion, large imbalances

The Commonwealth of Independent States: sustaining strong growth

Developing economies

Africa: the growth momentum continues

East Asia: another year of export-driven growth, but domestic demand is set to strengthen

South Asia: continued strong growth and a chance to vanquish poverty

Western Asia: the boom fuelled by oil continues

Latin America and the Caribbean: domestic demand boosts growth

 

Annex

Statistical tables

Boxes
I.1 Key assumptions for the baseline global economic forecast for 2007
I.2 An alternative scenario: the global implications of a collapse of the United States housing market
I.3 Prospects for the least developed countries
I.4 Higher oil prices have caused significant economic losses in lower-income oil-importing countries
II.1 The role of speculation in primary commodity markets
II.2 Market concentration in the mining industry
II.3 The scope of Aid for Trade financing
IV.1 Migration and migrant remittances within the Commonwealth of Independent States
IV.2 Inadequate infrastructure and energy supply: critical constraints to investment and trade in Africa
IV.3 Terms of trade and external adjustment in Latin America and the Caribbean

Figures
I.1a Nominal interest rates of the United States, 1961-2007 (first quarter)
I.1b Real interest rates of the United States, 1961-2007 (first quarter)
I.2 Net barter terms of trade of selected developing countries, 2000-2006
I.3 Exchange-rate index for the United States, 1990-2006
I.4 New home sales in the United States, 2002-2006
I.5 Current-account balances, 2003-2007
I.6 United States net international investment position,1976-2006
II.1 Ratio of the growth rate of world exports to the growth rate of gross world product, 2001-2007
II.2 Value of world exports, 2000-2007
II.3 Growth of merchandise export volume, 1996-2007
II.4 Merchandise trade balances, 2004-2007
II.5 Non-oil primary commodity prices, 2000-2006
II.6 Baltic Exchange Dry Index of shipping rates, 2003-October 2006
II.7 Brent oil: weekly premium over OPEC basket, January 2003-October 2006
III.1 Net financial transfers to developing countries and economies in transition, 1997-2006
III.2 Emerging Market Bond Index global composite stripped spreads, end December 2002-end September 2006
III.3 Foreign direct investment out flows from developing and transition economies, 1980-2005
III.4 Offi cial development assistance from non-Development Assistance Committee donors, 2000-2004
IV.1 Composition of GDP growth in the EU-12, Japan and the United States, 2000-2007
IV.2 Housing market index in the United States, 1985-2006
IV.3 GDP growth and inflation in Japan, 1998-2007
IV.4 GDP growth in selected Western European countries, 2000-2007
IV.5 Growth of real GDP in the EU-8, 1996-2007
IV.6 Current-account balance of selected countries in South-eastern Europe, 2004-2006
IV.7 Consumer Pprice Index inflation in selected Commonwealth of Independent States economies, January-September 2005 and 2006
IV.8 Growth of real GDP in Africa, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2007
IV.9 Average annual GDP growth, 1998-2006
IV.10 Western Asia: total GDP and GDP per capita, 2002-2006
IV.11 Latin America and the Caribbean: current-account and fiscal balances, 2000-2006

Tables
I.1 Growth of world output, 2001-2007
I.2 Frequency of high and low growth of per capita output, 2004-2007
I.3 Impact of changes in terms of trade and net factor income payments on national income in selected developing-country groups, average for 2004-2006
III.1 Net financial transfers to developing countries and economies in transition, 1995-2006.
III.2 Net financial flows to developing countries and economies in transition, 1995-2007
III.3 Foreign direct investment inflows, by host region and major host economy, 2004-2006
III.4 Cross-border merger-and-acquisitions sales, by sector/industry of seller
III.5 Foreign direct investment by developing and transition economies in selected LDCs, various years
III.6 Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative
IV.1 Selected East Asian economies: real gross fixed investment, 2001-2006
IV.2 Poverty and inequality in South Asia
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