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I. |
Global outlook |
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Macroeconomic prospects
for the world economy
Expected deceleration of world economic growth in 2007
A
more volatile international economic environment for developing
countries
The
need for more employment growth
Benign inflation outlook
Uncertainties and
downside risks for the global outlook
Burst of the housing bubble
The
impact of higher oil prices
Widening global imbalances
The need for
macroeconomic policy coordination
A
new Plaza Agreement?
The
case for policy coordination
Obstacles to policy coordination
What can be done? |
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II. |
International trade |
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Trade flows: can the
momentum be sustained?
Primary commodity
prices and markets
Non-oil commodities
World oil markets
Trade policy
developments and trends
Doha negotiations: dealing with a complete deadlock
Aid for Trade:
tentative progress in moving the Initiative forward |
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III. |
Financial flows to developing and
transition economies |
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Net transfers
Private capital flows
Net
private capital flows to developing countries
Continuing expansion of foreign direct investment
International financial
cooperation
Official development assistance
The
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and other debt-relief
measures
Governance of the
global financial system
Quota and voice reform in the International Monetary Fund
Multilateral surveillance
Financing for crisis prevention
International Monetary Fund engagement with low-income countries
Regional financial cooperation |
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IV. |
Regional developments and outlook |
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Developed market
economies
North America: the United States sees a significant downshift
Developed Asia and the Pacific: the economic recovery in Japan
continues, but a slowdown is expected for 2007
Western Europe: the recovery continues
The
new EU members: reaching record growth rates
Economies in
transition: buoyant growth continues
South-eastern Europe: strong expansion, large imbalances
The
Commonwealth of Independent States: sustaining strong growth
Developing economies
Africa: the growth momentum continues
East Asia: another year of export-driven growth, but domestic
demand is set to strengthen
South Asia: continued strong growth and a chance to vanquish
poverty
Western Asia: the boom fuelled by oil continues
Latin America and the Caribbean: domestic demand boosts growth |
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Annex |
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Statistical tables
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Boxes |
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I.1 |
Key assumptions for the baseline global economic forecast for 2007 |
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I.2 |
An alternative scenario: the global implications of a collapse of
the United States housing market |
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I.3 |
Prospects for the least developed countries |
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I.4 |
Higher oil prices have caused significant economic losses in
lower-income oil-importing countries |
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II.1 |
The role of speculation in primary commodity markets |
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II.2 |
Market concentration in the mining industry |
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II.3 |
The scope of Aid for Trade financing |
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IV.1 |
Migration and migrant remittances within the Commonwealth of
Independent States |
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IV.2 |
Inadequate infrastructure and energy supply: critical constraints
to investment and trade in Africa |
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IV.3 |
Terms of trade and external adjustment in Latin America and the
Caribbean |
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Figures |
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I.1a |
Nominal interest rates of the United States, 1961-2007 (first
quarter) |
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I.1b |
Real interest rates of the United States, 1961-2007 (first
quarter) |
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I.2 |
Net barter terms of trade of selected developing countries,
2000-2006 |
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I.3 |
Exchange-rate index for the United States, 1990-2006 |
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I.4 |
New home sales in the United States, 2002-2006 |
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I.5 |
Current-account balances, 2003-2007 |
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I.6 |
United States net international investment position,1976-2006 |
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II.1 |
Ratio of the growth rate of world exports to the growth rate of
gross world product, 2001-2007 |
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II.2 |
Value of world exports, 2000-2007 |
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II.3 |
Growth of merchandise export volume, 1996-2007 |
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II.4 |
Merchandise trade balances, 2004-2007 |
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II.5 |
Non-oil primary commodity prices, 2000-2006 |
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II.6 |
Baltic Exchange Dry Index of shipping rates, 2003-October 2006 |
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II.7 |
Brent oil: weekly premium over OPEC basket, January 2003-October
2006 |
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III.1 |
Net financial transfers to developing countries and economies in
transition, 1997-2006 |
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III.2 |
Emerging Market Bond Index global composite stripped spreads, end
December 2002-end September 2006 |
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III.3 |
Foreign direct investment out flows from developing and transition
economies, 1980-2005 |
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III.4 |
Offi cial development assistance from non-Development Assistance
Committee donors, 2000-2004 |
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IV.1 |
Composition of GDP growth in the EU-12, Japan and the United
States, 2000-2007 |
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IV.2 |
Housing market index in the United States, 1985-2006 |
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IV.3 |
GDP growth and inflation in Japan, 1998-2007 |
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IV.4 |
GDP growth in selected Western European countries, 2000-2007 |
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IV.5 |
Growth of real GDP in the EU-8, 1996-2007 |
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IV.6 |
Current-account balance of selected countries in South-eastern
Europe, 2004-2006 |
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IV.7 |
Consumer Pprice Index inflation in selected Commonwealth of
Independent States economies, January-September 2005 and 2006 |
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IV.8 |
Growth of real GDP in Africa, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa,
2000-2007 |
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IV.9 |
Average annual GDP growth, 1998-2006 |
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IV.10 |
Western Asia: total GDP and GDP per capita, 2002-2006 |
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IV.11 |
Latin America and the Caribbean: current-account and fiscal
balances, 2000-2006 |
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Tables |
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I.1 |
Growth of world output, 2001-2007 |
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I.2 |
Frequency of high and low growth of per capita output, 2004-2007 |
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I.3 |
Impact of changes in terms of trade and net factor income payments
on national income in selected developing-country groups, average
for 2004-2006 |
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III.1 |
Net financial transfers to developing countries and economies in
transition, 1995-2006. |
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III.2 |
Net financial flows to developing countries and economies in
transition, 1995-2007 |
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III.3 |
Foreign direct investment inflows, by host region and major host
economy, 2004-2006 |
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III.4 |
Cross-border merger-and-acquisitions sales, by sector/industry of
seller |
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III.5 |
Foreign direct investment by developing and transition economies
in selected LDCs, various years |
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III.6 |
Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative |
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IV.1 |
Selected East Asian economies: real gross fixed investment,
2001-2006 |
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IV.2 |
Poverty and inequality in South Asia |