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World Economic Situtation and Prospects 2006   

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2006

UNITED NATIONS 

This work is published for and on behalf of the United Nations.

Paper  Back Book   :   Pages : 178
2006  Edition         :   ISBN - 81-7188-532-2
Price : Rs. 595.00  
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ABOUT THE BOOK :

The world economy is expected to continue to grow at a rate of 3 per cent during 2006. The United States economy remains the main engine of global economic growth, but the growth of China, India and a few other large developing economies is becoming increasingly important. On average, developing economies are expected to expand at a rate of 5.6 per cent and the economies in transition at 5.9 per cent, despite the fact that these economies may face larger challenges during 2006.

Driven by higher oil prices, inflation rates have edged up worldwide. Core inflation rates, which exclude the prices of energy and food, have been more stable, indicating that the pass-through of higher oil prices to overall inflation is limited.


CONTENTS IN DETAIL :

Executive Summary

Contents

I.

Global outlook

Macroeconomic prospects for the world economy

Moderation of world economic growth expected

Stabilizing international economic environment for developing countries

Lacklustre employment growth

Impact of higher oil prices on inflation and income

Widening global imbalances

Global investment anaemia, not a savings glut

Widening net foreign asset positions and exchange-rate adjustment

Downside risks of the global outlook

Disorderly adjustment of imbalances

Additional oil price shocks

End of the housing market bubble

Other risks

Policy challenges and the case for international macroeconomic policy coordination

Current macroeconomic policy stance

Dealing with higher oil prices and inflated house prices

Redressing imbalances through coordinated policies

Galvanizing aid, trade and finance for achieving the MDGs

 

II.

International trade

Trade flows: trends and outlook

Commodity prices and markets

Non-oil commodities

World oil markets

Trade policy developments and trends

Doha negotiations: keeping the Round alive

Bilateral and regional trade agreements

Non-tariff barriers: a rising trend in world trade

Textiles and clothing: post-ATC developments

Annex: Developments in non-oil commodity markets

 

III.

Financial flows to developing and transition economies

Net transfers of financial resources

Net private capital flows: sustained positive investor sentiment and ample liquidity

Increasing foreign direct investment

International financial cooperation

Official flows: IMF is a net receiver of resources from developing countries

Official development assistance: more but still not enough

Initiatives to enhance aid effectiveness

South-South Cooperation is increasing

HIPC Initiative and other debt-relief measures

Governance of the global financial system

Multilateral surveillance

International standards and codes

The modalities for official liquidity provision

Policies on crisis resolution

IMF engagement with low-income countries

 

IV.

Regional developments and outlook

Developed market economies

North America: imbalances and risks increase

Developed Asia and the Pacific: ending deflation in Japan

Western Europe: a weak recovery in 2005

The new EU members: dynamic but uneven growth

Economies in transition

South-eastern Europe: dynamic growth continues but at a slower pace 

The CIS: strong growth prevails despite some slowdown

Developing economies

Africa: GDP growth continues to be robust

East Asia: solid growth amidst increased downside risks

South Asia: a sustained broad-based growth

Western Asia: boom conditions persist amidst uneven growth

Latin America and the Caribbean: export-led growth

 

Annex

Statistical tables

Boxes

I.1

Major assumptions for the baseline global economic forecast for 2006

I.2

Prospects for the least developed countries

II.1

WTO dispute settlement and commodities

II.2

The accession of Saudi Arabia and Tonga to WTO

II.3

Monitoring development gains from trade: UNCTADís Trade and Development Index

III.1

Basel II Capital Adequacy Framework

IV.1

The role of housing markets in the transmission of monetary policy

IV.2

Economic growth and labour-market outcomes in Eastern Europe and the CIS

IV.3

Avian influenza: worries in Asia

IV.4

Oil windfall, booming stock markets and real estate sectors: is there a bubble on the way?

Figures

I.1

Distribution of per capita GDP growth among developing countries

I.2

Global current-account imbalances, 1996-2005

I.3

Global savings and investment rates, 1970-2004

I.4

Fixed investment rates in major developed and developing economies, 1990-2004

I.5

Net foreign asset positions of major economies, 1994-2005

I.6

(a) Reserve accumulation and real exchange rates in Asia and Latin America, 2004-2005

(b) Reserve accumulation and money supply growth in Asia and Latin America, 2004-2005

II.1

United States: Merchandise exports, petroleum and non-petroleum imports, January 2004-September 2005

II.2

Selected regions and economies: share of merchandise exports to China in total merchandise exports, 2000 and 2005

II.3

Selected economies: merchandise trade balance, 2003-2006

II.4

Non-fuel annual average commodity price indices, 1970-2005

II.5

Prices of primary commodities and manufactures, 2000-2005

II.6

Oil prices, January 2003-October 2005

II.7

Brent oil: premium over OPEC basket, January 2003-November 2005

II.8

Non-tariff trade barriers, 1994 and 2004

III.1

Yield spreads on emerging market bonds, 1 January 2004-30 November 2005

III.2

Net official development assistance by DAC countries, 1990-2010

IV.1

Real interest rates in the euro area, Japan and the United States: January 1999-October 2005

IV.2

Standardized rates of unemployment in the EU-15, Japan and the United States: January 1999-October 2005

IV.3

CPI inflation in the EU-15, Japan and the United States: January 1999-October 2005

IV.4

Annual rates of real GDP growth in Western Europe: selected countries, 2000-2006

IV.5

Quarterly changes in real GDP in South-eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, first quarter 2002-third quarter 2005

IV.6

Real GDP growth in Africa: the five fastest and five slowest performers in 2005

IV.7

Growth in textile and clothing exports from selected South Asian countries to the European Union and the United States, 2001-2005

IV.8

Latin America and the Caribbean: current-account balance, 2002-2005

Tables

I.1

Growth of world output, 1996-2006

II.1

Frequency of high and low growth of per capita output, 2003-2006

III.1

Net transfer of financial resources to developing economies and economies in transition, 1995-2005

III.2

Net financial flows to developing countries and economies in transition, 1993-2005

III.3

Inflows of foreign direct investment, 2003-2005

III.4

Outflows of foreign direct investment as a percentage of gross fixed capital formation in selected developing economies, 2002-2004
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