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I. |
Global outlook |
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Macroeconomic
prospects for the world economy
Moderation
of world economic growth expected
Stabilizing
international economic environment for developing countries
Lacklustre
employment growth
Impact
of higher oil prices on inflation and income
Widening
global imbalances
Global
investment anaemia, not a savings glut
Widening
net foreign asset positions and exchange-rate adjustment
Downside
risks of the global outlook
Disorderly
adjustment of imbalances
Additional
oil price shocks
End
of the housing market bubble
Other
risks
Policy
challenges and the case for international macroeconomic policy
coordination
Current
macroeconomic policy stance
Dealing
with higher oil prices and inflated house prices
Redressing
imbalances through coordinated policies
Galvanizing
aid, trade and finance for achieving the MDGs
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II. |
International trade |
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Trade
flows: trends and outlook
Commodity
prices and markets
Non-oil
commodities
World
oil markets
Trade
policy developments and trends
Doha
negotiations: keeping the Round alive
Bilateral
and regional trade agreements
Non-tariff
barriers: a rising trend in world trade
Textiles
and clothing: post-ATC developments
Annex:
Developments in non-oil commodity markets
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III. |
Financial flows to developing and
transition economies |
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Net
transfers of financial resources
Net
private capital flows: sustained positive investor sentiment and
ample liquidity
Increasing
foreign direct investment
International
financial cooperation
Official
flows: IMF is a net receiver of resources from developing
countries
Official
development assistance: more but still not enough
Initiatives
to enhance aid effectiveness
South-South
Cooperation is increasing
HIPC
Initiative and other debt-relief measures
Governance
of the global financial system
Multilateral
surveillance
International
standards and codes
The
modalities for official liquidity provision
Policies
on crisis resolution
IMF
engagement with low-income countries
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IV. |
Regional developments and outlook |
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Developed
market economies
North
America: imbalances and risks increase
Developed
Asia and the Pacific: ending deflation in Japan
Western Europe: a weak recovery in 2005
The new EU members: dynamic but uneven growth
Economies
in transition
South-eastern
Europe: dynamic growth continues but at a slower pace
The
CIS: strong growth prevails despite some slowdown
Developing
economies
Africa:
GDP growth continues to be robust
East
Asia: solid growth amidst increased downside risks
South
Asia: a sustained broad-based growth
Western
Asia: boom conditions persist amidst uneven growth
Latin
America and the Caribbean: export-led growth
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Annex |
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Statistical tables
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Boxes |
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I.1 |
Major assumptions for the baseline global economic forecast for
2006 |
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I.2 |
Prospects for the least developed countries |
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II.1 |
WTO dispute settlement and commodities |
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II.2 |
The accession of Saudi Arabia and Tonga to WTO |
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II.3 |
Monitoring development gains from trade: UNCTAD’s Trade and
Development Index |
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III.1 |
Basel II Capital Adequacy Framework |
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IV.1 |
The role of housing markets in the transmission of monetary policy |
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IV.2 |
Economic growth and labour-market outcomes in Eastern Europe and
the CIS |
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IV.3 |
Avian influenza: worries in Asia |
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IV.4 |
Oil windfall, booming stock markets and real estate sectors: is
there a bubble on the way? |
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Figures |
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I.1 |
Distribution of per capita GDP growth among developing countries |
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I.2 |
Global current-account imbalances, 1996-2005 |
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I.3 |
Global savings and investment rates, 1970-2004 |
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I.4 |
Fixed investment rates in major developed and developing
economies, 1990-2004 |
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I.5 |
Net foreign asset positions of major economies, 1994-2005 |
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I.6 |
(a)
Reserve accumulation and real exchange rates in Asia and Latin
America, 2004-2005
(b)
Reserve accumulation and money supply growth in Asia and Latin
America, 2004-2005 |
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II.1 |
United States: Merchandise exports, petroleum and non-petroleum
imports, January 2004-September 2005 |
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II.2 |
Selected regions and economies: share of merchandise exports to
China in total merchandise exports, 2000 and 2005 |
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II.3 |
Selected economies: merchandise trade balance, 2003-2006 |
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II.4 |
Non-fuel annual average commodity price indices, 1970-2005 |
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II.5 |
Prices of primary commodities and manufactures, 2000-2005 |
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II.6 |
Oil prices, January 2003-October 2005 |
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II.7 |
Brent oil: premium over OPEC basket, January 2003-November 2005 |
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II.8 |
Non-tariff trade barriers, 1994 and 2004 |
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III.1 |
Yield spreads on emerging market bonds, 1 January 2004-30 November
2005 |
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III.2 |
Net official development assistance by DAC countries, 1990-2010 |
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IV.1 |
Real interest rates in the euro area, Japan and the United States:
January 1999-October 2005 |
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IV.2 |
Standardized rates of unemployment in the EU-15, Japan and the
United States: January 1999-October 2005 |
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IV.3 |
CPI inflation in the EU-15, Japan and the United States: January
1999-October 2005 |
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IV.4 |
Annual rates of real GDP growth in Western Europe: selected
countries, 2000-2006 |
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IV.5 |
Quarterly changes in real GDP in South-eastern Europe and the
Commonwealth of Independent States, first quarter 2002-third
quarter 2005 |
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IV.6 |
Real GDP growth in Africa: the five fastest and five slowest
performers in 2005 |
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IV.7 |
Growth in textile and clothing exports from selected South Asian
countries to the European Union and the United States, 2001-2005 |
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IV.8 |
Latin America and the Caribbean: current-account balance,
2002-2005 |
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Tables |
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I.1 |
Growth of world output, 1996-2006 |
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II.1 |
Frequency of high and low growth of per capita output, 2003-2006 |
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III.1 |
Net transfer of financial resources to developing economies and
economies in transition, 1995-2005 |
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III.2 |
Net financial flows to developing countries and economies in
transition, 1993-2005 |
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III.3 |
Inflows of foreign direct investment, 2003-2005 |
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III.4 |
Outflows of foreign direct investment as a percentage of gross
fixed capital formation in selected developing economies,
2002-2004 |
