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Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2005   
Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2005

Dealing with shocks

UNITED NATIONS

The work is published for and on behalf of the
United Nations.

Paper  Back Book   :   Pages : 286
2006  Edition         :   ISBN - 81-7188-503-9
Price : Rs. 795.00  
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ABOUT THE BOOK :

Despite the increase in oil prices, the weakness of the dollar and the effects of the tsunami, in 2004 ESCAP economies grew at their fastest pace since 2000, with broad-based growth accompanied in most cases by low inflation. Growth was driven by increased exports, a large part of which were within the region, particularly to China, as well as strong domestic demand, including a revival in capital expenditures. Prospects for 2005 indicate a slowdown in economic growth in ESCAP region as the external environment weakens, but the region is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing in the world.

The rapid ageing of countries which are still developing is the most important feature of demographic transition in the next half century in Asia and Pacific. Governments are increasingly under pressure not only to devise innovative mechanisms to deal with an ageing population but also to ensure the long-term viability of social welfare programmes, while minimizing the negative effects on the economy. The diversity of ageing in the region requires different policy responses, including fundamental changes in policy design, particularly in health and pension systems.

The year 2005 was designated as the International Year of Microcredit with the objective of promoting the role of microfinance and microcredit in poverty reduction. The Survey highlights some Asia-Pacific experiences to illustrate how many of the poor people living in the region could improve their lives through their own efforts.


CONTENTS IN DETAIL :

I.

Asia-Pacific region: key developments and prospects

The global setting and implications for Asia-Pacific

Developed countries

Recent trends in international trade

Commodities

Foreign direct investment flows

Financial market developments

Developments, prospects and policy issues in Asia and the Pacific

Developing economies in the subregion

Developed countries of the region

Near-term policy issues for the region 

Longer-term development policy issues for the region

 

II.

Macroeconomic performance, issues and policies

Developing economies of the ESCAP region

East and North-East Asia

North and Central Asia

Pacific island economies

South and South-West Asia

South-East Asia

Developed countries of the region

Australia, Japan and New Zealand

 

III.

Dynamics of population ageing: how can Asia and the Pacific respond?

Introduction

Population dynamics

Determinants of population ageing

Decline in mortality

Decline in the fertility rate

Scale and speed of ageing

Ageing of the older population

Is ageing a gender issue?

Implications of population ageing

Fiscal implications

Public pensions

Health care

Implications for the labour market

Savings and investment

Public debt

Impact on capital markets

Economic growth

Care of older persons

Poverty, isolation and discrimination

Policy responses

Pension reforms

Increasing efficiency in the health-care sector

Healthy ageing

Health insurance

Institutional arrangements for care of the elderly

Promotion of familial care of the elderly

Market reforms

Labour market reforms

Migration policy

Population policy

Fiscal policy

Role of the private sector

Conclusion

 

Special feature to mark the International Year of Microcredit, 2005

Microfinance in poverty reduction Asia-Pacific challenges
 

Boxes

I.1

Impact of high oil prices in the ESCAP region

I.2

Multilateralism and free trade areas in Asia and the Pacific

I.3

World Conference on Disaster Reduction and early warning systems

II.1

Mauritius International Meeting on Small Island Developing States reaffirms sustainable development and related issues

II.2

Smooth transition for countries graduating from the list of least developed countries

II.3

Post-tsunami reconstruction in Aceh and North Sumatra

II.4

Phase-out of the Multifibre Arrangement and least developed countries in the Asian and Pacific region

II.5

Economic implications of privatizing Japan Post

III.1

Growing implicit pension debt

III.2

Responding to rapid ageing in Australia: a strategic approach

III.3

Population ageing: from problem to opportunity

III.4

Migration policy: a cushion for the ageing process?

 

Tables

I.1

Selected indicators of global economic conditions, 2001-2005

I.2

World trade and prices, 1991-2004

I.3

Commodity price index, 2001-2004

I.4

Net capital flows of developing countries and developing economies in Asia, 1997-2005

I.5

Selected economies of the ESCAP region: rates of economic growth and inflation, 2003-2006

I.6

Percentage of the population below the $1 per day poverty line in selected countries, 1990-2003

II.1

Selected East and North-East Asian economies: growth rates, 2001-2004

II.2

Selected East and North-East Asian economies: ratios of gross domestic savings and investment to GDP, 2001-2004

II.3

Selected East and North-East Asian economies: inflation and money supply growth (M2), 2001-2004

II.4

Selected East and North-East Asian economies: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.5

Selected East and North-East Asian economies: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.6

Selected East and North-East Asian economies: budget and current account balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.7

North and Central Asian economies: growth rates, 2001-2004

II.8

North and Central Asian economies: inflation, 2001-2004

II.9

North and Central Asian economies: budget balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.10

North and Central Asian economies: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.11

North and Central Asian economies: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.12

North and Central Asian economies: current account balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.13

Selected Pacific island economies: growth rates, 2001-2004

II.14

Selected Pacific island economies: budget and current account balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.15

Selected Pacific island economies: inflation and money supply growth (M2), 2001-2004

II.16

Selected Pacific island economies: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.17

Selected Pacific island economies: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.18

Selected South and South-West Asian economies: growth rates, 2001-2004

II.19

Selected South and South-West Asian economies: ratios of gross domestic savings and investment to GDP, 2001-2004

II.20

Selected South and South-West Asian economies: inflation and money supply growth (M2), 2001-2004

II.21

Selected South and South-West Asian economies: budget and current account balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.22

Selected South and South-West Asian economies: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.23

Selected South and South-West Asian economies: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.24

Least developed countries in South and South-West Asia: growth rates, 2001-2004

II.25

Least developed countries in South and South-West Asia: inflation and money supply growth (M2), 2001-2004

II.26

Least developed countries in South and South-West Asia: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.27

Least developed countries in South and South-West Asia: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.28

Selected South-East Asian economies: growth rates, 2001-2004

II.29

Selected South-East Asian economies: ratios of gross domestic savings and investment to GDP, 2001-2004

II.30

Selected South-East Asian economies: inflation and money supply growth (M2), 2001-2004

II.31

Selected South-East Asian economies: budget and current account balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.32

Selected South-East Asian economies: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.33

Selected South-East Asian economies: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.34

Least developed countries in South-East Asia: growth rates, 2001-2004

II.35

Least developed countries in South-East Asia: inflation and money supply growth (M2), 2001-2004

II.36

Least developed countries in South-East Asia: budget and current account balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.37

Least developed countries in South-East Asia: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.38

Least developed countries in South-East Asia: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.39

Developed countries of the ESCAP region: rates of economic growth and inflation, 2001-2004

II.40

Developed countries of the ESCAP region: consumption and investment as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.41

Developed countries of the ESCAP region: short-term interest rates and money supply growth (M2), 2001-2004

II.42

Developed countries of the ESCAP region: budget and current account balance as a percentage of GDP, 2001-2004

II.43

Developed countries of the ESCAP region: merchandise exports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

II.44

Developed countries of the ESCAP region: merchandise imports and their rates of growth, 2001-2004

III.1

Diversity of the demographic characteristics in the region

III.2

Changes in infant mortality rate and total fertility rate in developing countries

III.3

Total fertility rate

III.4

Population aged 60 and over

III.5

Speed of ageing of 60+ population

III.6

Common features of pension schemes in the Asian region and policy options

 

Figures

II.1

Rates of GDP growth in selected East and North-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.2

Inflation in selected East and North-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.3

Growth rates in merchandise export earnings of selected East and North-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.4

Growth rates in merchandise import spending of selected East and North-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.5

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of selected East and North-East Asian economies, 1996-2004

II.6

Rates of GDP growth in North and Central Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.7

Inflation in North and Central Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.8

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of North and Central Asian economies, 1996-2004

II.9

Rates of GDP growth in selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2004

II.10

Inflation in selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2004

II.11

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of selected Pacific island economies and Australia and New Zealand, 1996-2004

II.12

Growth rates in merchandise export earnings of selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2004

II.13

Growth rates in merchandise import spending of selected Pacific island economies, 2001-2004

II.14

Rates of GDP growth in selected South and South-West Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.15

Inflation in selected South and South-West Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.16

Growth rates in merchandise export earnings of selected South and South-West Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.17

Growth rates in merchandise import spending of selected South and South-West Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.18

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of selected South and South-West Asian economies, 1996-2004

II.19

Rates of GDP growth in least developed countries in South and South-West Asia, 2001-2004

II.20

Inflation in least developed countries in South and South-West Asia, 2001-2004

II.21

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of least developed countries in South and South-West Asia, 1996-2004

II.22

Growth rates in merchandise export earnings of least developed countries in South and South-West Asia, 2001-2004

II.23

Growth rates in merchandise import spending of least developed countries in South and South-West Asia, 2001-2004

II.24

Rates of GDP growth in selected South-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.25

Inflation in selected South-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.26

Growth rates in merchandise export earnings of selected South-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.27

Growth rates in merchandise import spending of selected South-East Asian economies, 2001-2004

II.28

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of selected South-East Asian economies, 1996-2004

II.29

Rates of GDP growth in the least developed countries in South-East Asia, 2001-2004

II.30

Inflation in the least developed countries in South-East Asia, 2001-2004

II.31

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of least developed countries in South-East Asia, 1996-2004

II.32

Rates of GDP growth in developed countries in the ESCAP region, 2001-2004

II.33

Inflation in developed countries in the ESCAP region, 2001-2004

II.34

Growth rates in merchandise export earnings of developed countries in the ESCAP region, 2001-2004

II.35

Growth rates in merchandise import spending of developed countries in the ESCAP region, 2001-2004

II.36

Index of exchange rates against the United States dollar of developed countries in the ESCAP region, 1996-2004

III.1

Proportion of population aged 60 and over

III.2

Life expectancy and fertility trends

III.3

Distribution of 60+ population in selected economies, 2000 and 2050

III.4

Total 80+ population by ESCAP subregions and the rest of the world

III.5

Distribution of 80+ population in selected economies, 2000 and 2050

III.6

Share of male and female population aged 60+ and 80+ of Asian and Pacific economies in the total population, 1950-2050

III.7

Old-age dependency ratio in Asia and the Pacific and selected economies

III.8

Dynamics of the working-age population in selected economies: population aged 15-59 for selected Asian and Pacific economies as a percentage of the total population, 1950-2050

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