I.

CURRENT ISSUES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY

A. Introduction

B. The world economy: growth performance and prospects

1. Economic activity in developed countries

2. Economic activity in developing countries

3. Recent developments in world trade and finance

C. The global imbalances and the United States current-account deficit

1. Twenty-five years of deficits in the United States

2. The surplus regions

3. Tailoring policy measures

D. Oil price hikes in perspective

1. The impact of an oil price shock on prices and economic activity

2. The 1973-1974 and 1979-1980 oil price shocks: putting current events in perspective

3. The impact on oil-importing developing economies

E. Rapid growth in China and India and the profit-investment nexus

1. The sectors driving economic growth

2. Stable and balanced demand growth as a condition for sustained rapid growth

3. Policy conditions underlying the Asian catching up processes

4. Challenges for sustained growth in China and India

Notes

II.

INCOME GROWTH AND SHIFTING TRADE PATTERNS IN ASIA

A. Introduction

B. Evolving demand and trade patterns in Asia: a comparative perspective

1. Changing patterns of food consumption

2. Intensity of metal and energy use

C. Domestic resource constraints and the balance-of-payments constraint

1. Relative resource constraints and country size

2. Shifts in trade composition: experiences of Asian industrialization

D. World market shares and prices

1. The growing impact of China and India on global primary commodity markets

2. The role of textile and clothing exports

Notes

III.

Dynamics of population ageing: how can Asia and the Pacific respond?

A. Introduction

B. The terms-of-trade problem revisited

C. Recent trends in the terms of trade

D. Effects of terms-of-trade changes on domestic income

E. The distribution of gains or losses from terms of trade

F. The distribution of export income and rent from extractive industries

Notes

IV.

TOWARDS A NEW FORM OF GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE

A. Introduction

B. The growing importance of developing countries in global markets

C. Shifts in the composition of developing-country exports

D. What has changed? An assessment

E. Policies for managing the new forms of global interdependence

Notes

REFERENCES