The Colonial Regime • The India of 1947 • Distribution of National Income and Workforce Sectorwise • The Planning Era.

Structural Constraints and the Development Strategy • Role of the State as Visualised in the Fifties • Evolution of Strategy and Priorities • Changing Perceptions • Role of Planning • Redefining the Role of State • The Government, The State and The Market • Cooperative Action.

Planning : Economic and Social Aspects • The Determinants of Economic Development • Objectives of Planning • Democratic Planning and Role of the State.

Objectives of the Tenth Plan • Monitorable Targets for the Tenth Plan and Beyond • Employment Generation and Poverty Reduction • The Development Strategy • Strategy for Equity and Social Justice • Feasibility of Eight per cent Growth • The External Sector • Mid-Term Appraisal of the Tenth Five Year Plan (June, 2005); An Overview of Performance and Problems; Aggregate Growth; Trends in Agriculture; Infrastructure Problems; International Developments; Social Development; Employment; Inequality and Poverty; Balanced Regional Development; Resources in the Public Sector.

Pattern of Plan Financing: First Plan to Ninth Plan • Financing the Tenth Plan (MTA) • Central Plan Resources (2002-03 to 2005-06) • Resource Constraints • The Fiscal Challenge.

Introduction • On the Economic Impact and Sustainability of Debt and Deficit • Budgetary Objectives and Instruments • Fiscal Malady in India: Diagnoses and Remedies • Fiscal Restructuring Programme • Conclusions.

Budgetary Developments in 2005-06 • Revenue and Capital Receipts • Tax Measures: Direct Taxes; Indirect Taxes; • Service Tax • Expenditure Trends • Interest Payments • Subsidies • Government Debt.

Economic Development and Population Growth: The Theory of Demographic Transition; The Micro Economic Theory of Fertility • How does Population Growth Affect Economic Development? • National Population Policy 2000 • Objectives of National Population Policy • Census 2001: Selected Health Indicators; India’s Global Position in Terms of Socio-Demographic Parameters • India and World Population.

Population Growth in Historical Perspective • Fertility • Age at Marriage • Marital Fertility • Practice of Contraception • Some Critical Questions • Contraceptive Prevalence in Comparative Terms • Rise in Contraceptive Use and Fall in Birth Rates • Recognition of the Population Problem • Possible Pathways to a Faster Decline in Fertility • Urbanisation • Workforce Participation and Industrialisation • Literacy and School Enrolments • The Status of Indian Women • Infrastructure and Communication • Population Projections • Age Distribution of the Indian Population • The Experience of Kerala and Tamil Nadu • Policy Shifts Essential for the Tasks Ahead.

Linkage between Agriculture and Industrial Sectors • The Institutional Context • The New Technology • The Role of Technology in Indian Agriculture • Limits to Growth: Some Tentative Evidence • Major Factors Affecting the Growth Potential: (i) Lack of Long Term Policy Perspective (ii) Neglect of Capital Formation (iii) Lagging Research and Development Efforts (iv) Rising Soil Degradation and Over-exploitation of Ground Water • Agricultural Price Policy • Tenth Plan Targets • Strategy and Thrust in the Tenth Plan: Regionally Differentiated Strategy; Sustainable Development of Natural Resources • Public Distribution System (PDS) • Agriculture and Food Security: Progress in the Tenth Plan; Mid-Term Appraisal (June, 2005) • Consumption Demand and Food Security • Major Supply-side Issues.

Policy Objectives for Structural Reorganisation • The Reform Controversy • Impact of Structural Reorganisation • Emerging Perspectives and Policy Issues.

Reforming Policymaking: An Agenda of Priority Tasks • Introduction • Modernisation of Agriculture: Goals and Objectives • Towards a Self-Regulating System • Response to Technological Change • Optimisation of Resource Use • Resilience in the Face of Critical Situations • Overcoming Limits to Growth • Promoting Human Development • Getting Oriented to Modernisation: The Prospects Ahead • A Review of Critical Policy Issues • Introduction • Capital Formation • Agricultural Credit • Agricultural Insurance • Globalisation • Watershed Development • Research and Development • Development of Non-Farm Sector • Modernisation of Agriculture: The Priorities at a Glance • Towards Self-regulation • Overcoming Limits to Growth • Promoting Human Development • Critical Policies: Capital Formation • Agricultural Credit • Agricultural Insurance • Globalisation • Watershed Development • Research Development • Non-Farm Sector.

Introduction • Impact of Non-Agricultural Reforms on Agriculture • Rising Incomes and Agriculture • Improved Relative Prices for Agriculture • Agricultural Performance • Major Agricultural Policies • Agricultural Policy Performance • Grain Producer Price Policy • Removal of Export Restraints • Import Protection: Case of Oilseeds and Oils • Market and Regulatory Reform • Shaping Reform Agenda • Analytical Needs.

Some Basic Questions: Why not Dismantle PDS and all that? What should the Food Policy Try to Secure? • Designing an Optimal System of Public Intervention • Policy Instruments and Behaviour of the Food Economy • Instruments and Objectives • Inter-year Consumption Smoothing • Minimum Support Price, Rationing and Buffer Stocking • Food Policy in an Open Economy • Policy Instruments • Buffer Stocking and Food Security • On How to Make PDS Redundant • Conclusions.

Introduction • An Applied General Equilibrium Model for India • The Scenarios • Results: Macro Impacts • Impact on Agricultural Production, Consumption and Stocks • Welfare Impacts • Conclusions.

Summary and Recommendations • Long Term Recommendations: A. Focussing Food for Welfare: the Unemployed, the Destitute and Children; B. The Public Distribution System; C. Minimum Support Prices and Procurement; D. Open Market Sales, Exports and Imports; E. Encouraging Private Trade; F. Food Corporation of India Related Issues • Short Run Recommendations.

Industrial Scene at Independence • Industrial Control Regime • Performance of the Industrial Licensing System • New Economic Policy • Industrial Growth: Phases of Industrial Growth; Industrial Growth in the 90s; Comparative Growth Rates in the 80s and the 90s • Revision of IIP Series • Relative Contribution of Sectors to Total Industrial Production • Profile of Industrial Growth: Shift in Favour of Registered Manufacturing; Decline in Employment Growth in Organised Manufacturing; The Stagnant Share of Manufacturing Sector • The Manufacturing Slowdown: Factors Causing the Industrial Slowdown; Some Hypotheses: Cyclical Factors in Industrial Slowdown; Structural Factors • Infrastructure Constraints in the Industrial Sector; Industrial Performance and Credit Growth; Productivity Trends in the Manufacturing Sector • Recovery in Industrial Growth since 2002-03 • Industrial Policy: Recent Policy Initiatives; Industrial Licensing; Location Policy; Foreign Direct Investment Policy • Small Industry: Rationale for Supporting Small Scale Enterprises; Definition of Small Scale Industries; Small Scale Reservation Policy; Size of SSI Sector: Value Added; Size Structure within the Small Scale Sector; Trends in Employment Investment and Productivity in the SSI Sector; Spatial Distribution of SSEs; Impact of SSI Reservation on Exports • New Policy Directions • Performance of Small Scale Industries • Public Sector • Public Enterprise Policy • Privatisation • Industrial Sickness • Policies for Faster Industrial Growth: Mid-term Appraisal of the Tenth Five Year Plan; Industrialisation and Development; World Class Infrastructure • Labour Laws.

Introduction • Sources of Data on Industrial Output/Value Added • Growth Trends in the Era of Planning • Diversification of the Industrial Sector • The Deceleration Debate: Introduction; The Nature of Deceleration; Alternative Explanatory Hypotheses and Empirical Evidence • Growth Experience of the 1980s: Pattern of Growth; Factors Behind the Resurgence of Growth in the 1980s • Summary and Conclusion.

Evolution of Policy Since 1980 • Industrial Performance, 1980-81 to 2001-02 • A Closer Look at the 1990s • Towards an Explanation • Policy Options and Constraints • Summary and Conclusions.

Facts • An Explanation • Implications • Conclusions.

Introduction • Reasons for Market Failure: Externalities; Informational Deficiencies/Asymmetries; Market Failure and Government Intervention • Bureaucratic Failure • Market Failure and Public Sector Production • Private Versus Political Firms • Public Sector in India • State as a Private Trading Post • Commanding Heights of the Economy or Deep Swamps of Inefficiency • Ideology and Competition as Tools of Discipline • Some Concluding Remarks.

Evolution of Public Sector Policy • New Orientation • Common Minimum Programme • Profile of PSUs • Composition of Public Sector Plan Outlays • Budgetary Support in 1996-97 • Support to Loss Making PSUs in 1996-97 • Budgetary Support to Profitable PSUs in 1996-97 • Analysis of Budgetary Support in 1996-97 • Conclusions • Disinvestment: Strategy, Principles and Criteria • Need for a Long Term Disinvestment Strategy • Long Term Disinvestment Strategy • Approach to Disinvestment of Loss Making PSUs • Approach to Disinvestment Process • Principles for Extent of Disinvestment • Evolution of Public Sector Policy • Classification of Industry Groups • Strategic Group • Core Group • Non-Core Group • Industry Grouping • Framework for Analysing PSUs • Criteria for Disinvestment.

The Need for a New Approach • The Necessary Regulatory Framework • Infrastructure Sector in the Report of the PM’s Economic Advisory Council • Performance of the Infrastructure • New Initiatives for Infrastructure Development • Viability Gap for Infrastructure (MTA) • Appraisal and Approval Procedures • Outlook.

Trade Policy • Highlights of Foreign Trade Policy 2004-09 • Foreign Trade: Performance • Trends in Merchandise Trade • Structural Changes in India’s Foreign Trade • India’s Export Performance vis-a-vis other Developing Countries • Trends in Invisibles • India’s Balance of Payment Trends 1950-2005 • Sustainability of Current Account • Capital Account, External Debt and Exchange Rate: Approach, Developments and Issues • Committee on Capital Account Liberalisation (Chairman: S.S. Tarapore) • Foreign Investment; Magnitude; FPI; NRI Deposits; External Commercial Borrowings • Decline in Foreign Aid • Impact of Reforms on BoP • External Debt Management • Exchange Rate Management • Foreign Exchange Reserves: Approach, Developments and Issues • Summing Up.

Five Year Plans • Objectives and Policy Instruments of Implementation • The Foreign Trade Regime: Analytical Phases and Changes over Time • The Anatomy of the Pre-1991 Exchange Control System • Political Economy of the Foreign Exchange Regimes • Foreign Trade Performance.

Introduction • Reforms in the 1990s • A Brief Analytical Review • Data on FDI and their Limitations • The Trends: FDI Approvals and Its Composition • Interpreting the Trends • A Comparison: FDI in India and China • A Preliminary Assessment • Focus on Domestic Market • Problems with Infrastructure Investment • Net Foreign Exchange Inflow • Technology Spillovers • Decline in Competition • Foreign Exchange Earnings • Brand Names • Loss of Bargaining Power in the Technology Market • Towards a Realistic FDI Policy • Summary and Conclusion.

World Trade Organization • India and the WTO • India at the WTO Meetings • The Sixth WTO Ministerial Conference at Hong Kong (December 2005) • And After (July 2006).

The Performance • Rates of Economic Growth in India during the 20th Century • Two Phases of Growth: Assessment of Performance; Causal Factors • What Next? • Sectoral Composition of Real GDP • Structural Change in Terms of Industrial Distribution of Work Force and Occupational Structure • Occupation Structure • Inter-regional Disparities in Growth and Development • Implications of Inter-State Inequality • Sectoral Composition of Growth • Causal Factors: Investment; Technical Change; Institutions and Governance • The Way Ahead • Conclusion.

Liberalisation or Something Else? • Is Post-1991 Reform Growth Less Fragile? • What Next?

Studies on Convergence and Divergence • Studies on the Post-Reform Period • Growth Performance of States as seen through SDP Data • Inter-State Comparisons of Growth Performance • Evolving State Ranks Measured by GSDP Per Capita • Structural Changes in State Economies.

Growth Performance of the States: Growth Rates of SDP; Implications for Inter-State Inequality • Trends in Poverty in the States • Implications for Policy • Investment and Growth in Individual States; Human Resources; Quality of Infrastructure; The Policy Environment and Governance • The Problem of State Finances • The Role of the Central Government.

Poverty & Unemployment • Poverty Estimates • Poverty Ratio at State Level • Growth and Poverty• Employment Perspective • Labour and Unemployment • Employment in the Organized Sector • Women in the Workforce • Educated Employment • Results of 60th Round of NSSO Survey • Indian Labour Laws and Labour Markets • Strategies and Policies for Employment Generation • National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 2005 • Anti-Poverty, Employment Generation and Basic Services Programmes.

Structural Changes in the Economy • Current Scenario of Employment and Unemployment: Areas of Concern • Towards an Employment Strategy (i) Accelerating Growth; Sectoral Policies; (iii) Skill Development; (iv) Modifications in Labour Laws • Conclusion.

Malnutrition • Poverty and Malnutrition • Development Experiences and Lessons • Concluding Observations.

Economic Inequality in the Nineties • Growth, Poverty and Inequality • Aspects of Rising Inequality • Qualifications and Concerns • Food Consumption • Localised Impoverishment and Hidden Costs • Beyond Poverty Indexes.

Some Dimensions of the Problem • Towards a Strategy for Employment Generation • Role of Growth in Employment Generation • Macro Level Policies for Rapid Growth • Some Critical Sectoral Policies • The Role of Special Employment Programmes • Labour Skills and Training • Regional Dimensions of Employment • Reform of Labour Laws.

Trends in Wholesale Prices: 1950’s to 80’s • The Period of 90’s • Five Year Average Inflation Rate • Drought and Inflation • Factors for Low Inflation Rate since the Second Half of the 90’s • Developments During 2003-04 • Developments in 2004-05 so far: (i) Primary Products (ii) Manufactured Products • Essential Commodities • Inflation Rate based on CPI/(IW)/Consumer Inflation • Inflation Targeting • Movement of Agricultural Prices vis-a-vis Manufactured Prices • Issues in Price Stability • Anti-inflationary Measures.

Selected Economic and Social Indicators 1950-51 to 2004-2005.