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Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to Global Power   

Propelling India from Socialist Stagnation to
Global Power

Arvind Virmani

Volume 1: Growth Process
Hard Bound Book   :   Pages : 360
2006  Edition         :   ISBN - 81-7188-530-6
Price : Rs. 795.00;  US $ 65.95

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Volume 2: Policy Reforms
Hard Bound Book   :   Pages : 452
2006  Edition         :   ISBN - 81-7188-531-4
Price : Rs. 895.00;  US $ 69.95
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Together, the two volumes review the economic history of India from Independence to the current period and then go on to make forecasts about the future of the Indian economy and its role in the World. The objective is not criticism for the sake of it. Throughout the focus is on policy and institutional reforms to solve identified policy mistakes and problems.

Volume I shows that there have been two phases in India's economic history. The period of socialist stagnation, till the end of the seventies, in which India's growth rate was among the lowest in the World and poverty increased despite professions of socialism. The second period of market reform starting in 1980s walted us to the top of the growth sweepstakes and led a sharp and continuing decline in poverty. The book shows how India is poised to become a global power in the next 15 to 20 years, and why India is likely to become, over the next 30 years, the third pole in the emerging tripolar world of the 21st century.

Volume 2 focuses on the wider and deeper economic reforms initiated in the 1990s. It outlines the reforms, analyses their effect and draws lessons for the future. Among the areas covered are governance problems and institutional reforms, the BoP crisis, FDI, indirect tax and tariff reform, food policy and savings & monetary policy.

“ Dr. Arvind Virmani's valuable research output has been captured in the two volumes making the books a comprehensive retrospect and prospect of India's economic policies and performance.

“ The volumes are unique in terms of both the range of subjects and the depth of analysis, and bear an imprint of remarkable intellectual integrity.

“ These volumes would easily stand out for their impressive scholarly analysis of a wide gamut of issues from a variety of perspectives: historical, global, institutional and political-economy dimensions of the fiscal, financial and real sectors. His insightful research output and analytical prowess are well encapsulated in these two volumes. Indeed, a good reference book for researchers and policy makers alike, from a respected scholar with a policy-making background and unflinching commitment to national interests.”

—Y.V. Reddy
Governor, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai 

“ This book by Arvind Virmani, one of India's well-known economists, is an important contribution to the contemporary debate on a wide range of policy and analytical issues. In analysing India's development experi-ence, Dr. Virmani devotes considerable attention to empirical research as well as his personal experience as a policy advisor to the Government of India in the Ministry of Finance. The blend of theory, research and policy makes this book eminently worthwhile for anyone interested in India's future as a fast-growing poverty free developing country.”

—Bimal Jalan
A distinguished economist;
Member of Parliament (Rajya Sabha);
formerly: Governor, Reserve Bank of India


Arvind Virmani, b. June 22, 1949, is Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University, USA (1975). His thesis supervisor was Nobel Laureate Prof. Kenneth Arrow.

Dr. Virmani is currently Principal Advisor, Planning Commission, Government of India. He also serves as Chairman, Board of Trustees of SBI Mutual Fund, Member of the Board of Life Insurance Corporation of India and Member, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI). He is a Member of the Task Force on “Global Strategic Developments: Implications and Suggested Response” set up by National Security Council Secretariat. He is a Member of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on Money, Foreign Exchange and Government Securities Markets, Reserve Bank of India, February 2004. He was Director and Chief Executive, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi. He has served as Senior Economic Advisor in the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance. He was Advisor (Policy Planning) to Finance Minister in 1991-92 and 1992-93. Before joining the government he was Senior Economist at the World Bank and was acting chief of the Public Economics Division for a part of this tenure.

He chaired the Working Group on Public Debt Management (middle office) and Inter-Ministerial Group on Customs Duty Reform and was Member-Secretary of the Steering Group on Foreign Investment. He was a Member of the Joint Study Group (JSG) on India-China (and India-Korea) trade and economic cooperation. He served as member of the Appellate Tribunal for the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Depositories Act. He has served as Director, Punjab National Bank and Allahabad Bank, and Trustee, Unit Trust of India (UTI). Dr. Virmani was Member of the RBI Technical Advisory Group on Money and Government Security markets, the Steering Group on International Financial Standards and Codes and the UTI committee on reform and stabilisation of the US-64 scheme.

He has researched on Macroeconomics and Growth, International Trade and Tariffs and Credit Markets. He has advised and written extensively on all aspects of economic reforms including the book, Accelerating Growth and Poverty Reduction: A Policy Framework for India's Development (Academic Foundation, 2004).






Section I

Economic Growth: History and Lessons

1. India’s Economic Growth: Fluctuations Trends, Break Points and Phases
2. From Socialist Rate of Growth to Bharatiya Rate of Growth
3. Sources of India’s Economic Growth: Trends in Total Factor Productivity
4. China’s Socialist Market Economy: Lessons of Success

Section II

Global Growth, Power and International Relations


Tripolar World: India, China and USA

6. VIP: A Simple Measure of a Nation’s (Natural) Global Power
7. Economic Performance, Power Potential and Global Governance: Towards a New International Order

A Tripolar Century: USA, China and India


East Asian Regionalism and its Impact


India-China Economic Relations


Section III

Political Economy: Social Welfare and Voting

11. Economic Growth, Governance and Voting Behaviour: An Application to Indian Elections








Section IV

Policy Reforms and Institutions

1. Policy and Institutions: Some Lessons from Indian Reforms
2. India’s 1990-91 Crisis: Reforms, Myths and Paradoxes
3. Excess Food Stocks, PDS and Procurement Policy
4. Foreign Direct Investment Reform

Section V
Tax and Tariff Reforms

5. Towards A Competitive Economy: VAT and Customs Duty Reform
6. Customs Tariff Reform
7. Impact of Tariff Reforms on Indian Industry: Assessment based on a Multi-sector Econometric Model

Section VI
Financial Sector: Domestic and Global Integration


Structure of the Household Sector Asset Portfolio in India

9. Global Integration of India’s Money Market: Interest Rate Parity in India




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