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The Long View from Delhi   
The Long View from Delhi
To Define the Indian Grand Strategy for Foreign Policy
Admiral Raja Menon, Rajiv Kumar
Paperback Book (8˝" x 11") :   Pages : 182
2010  Edition   :  ISBN - 978-81-7188-800-9
Price : INR 990 / US $ 59.95
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Capitals of big countries like India are supposed to have a Long View of their world. Does Delhi have one? The US government, when presented with a Long View from Washington by Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute in the early seventies is supposed to have protested “But they employed only three people for the study.” Kahn replied “True, but that was three more than the government employed to look at the future”. Laymen imagine that those in the lofty reaches of government spend time in contemplation, brainstorming where their societies will be two decades hence. Disappointed they are when they learn that politicians drive policy more to ensure re-election four years later, than to shape their environment. They say they have no choice.

This book, the first such attempt, by Menon and Kumar, uses the Net Assessment Method to write the scenarios India will be confronted with in 2020. Policy, they feel, should address scenarios, that will inevitably evolve from myriad complex drivers. Scenarios cannot be created: only God does that. Menon and Kumar follow a transparent method to build, brick by brick, three scenarios that India could face, comparing them to three others evolved by the United States National Intelligence Council and by a group of Indian practitioners. The book closes with a possible Grand Strategy of Foreign Policy that will leave readers in India, and abroad with a clearer understanding of the choices that await a rising India.



Admiral Raja Menon was a career officer and a sub-marine specialist in the Navy and retired in 1994 as the Assistant Chief of Naval Staff (Operations). Published works include, Maritime Strategy and Continental Wars’, a standard text for the Staff College. He is a distinguished fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies and the National Maritime Foundation. Admiral Raja Menon spent two years as Chairman, Task Force for Net Assessment in the National Security Council.

Rajiv Kumar is the Director & CE, ICRIER, one of India’s leading economic policy think tanks. He has previously worked with the Government of India, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). He was also member of the National Security Advisory Board. Dr. Kumar is a D.Phil. in Economics from Oxford University and has several publications to his credit. He is also an active columnist.




List of Tables and Figures


List of Acronyms


Section I: Drivers and Scenarios

1. The Long View from Delhi 

2. The United States

3. China

4. Pakistan

5. Bangladesh

6. Sri Lanka

7. Nepal

8. Japan

9. Iran 

10. Russia

11. Myanmar

12. Central Asian Republics

Section II: The Defining of Drivers and Evolution of Scenarios of Issues Affecting the World

13. Arms Control Issues and Non-Proliferation

14. Hydrocarbons and Energy

15. Space: Drivers and Scenarios

16. Terrorism: Drivers and Scenarios in South Asia

17. Global Warming: Drivers and Scenarios

18. Water, Climate Change, Food, Population and Failing States

19. Commerce and Trade

20. India: Social Stability and Youth Bulge

21. Nuclear Deterrence

22. Regional Military Capabilities

Section III: Macro Scenarios

23. Stitching Country Scenarios into Global/Regional Scenarios

24. The Argument for Regional Scenarios versus Global Scenarios in Indian Foreign Policy

25. Skeleton Scenarios

26. Fleshing Out World Scenarios

27. A Combination of Scenarios taken from the US National Intelligence Council Version of Global Scenarios-2020 and NIC Report 2020

Section IV: National Objectives

28. World Scenarios and Indian Grand Strategy

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